The Oklahoma City Thunder head to Minnesota for game three with Jalen Williams seeking to shake the inconsistency playoff label. His last two road games he scored just six and ten points against the Denver Nuggets, and was a big reason why they were ineffective. This series against the Timberwolves appears to be different. Williams is doing it all with an average of 23 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals. Impact play continues as Williams gets past his points prop on the road.

With a high-rated defense, the Thunder would figure to be lower-scoring team, no? Not necessarily, as OKC is so adept at converting turnovers into quick points. The Thunder also doesn't play at a slow pace, has several go-to scoring threats, and owns depth. OKC doesn't necessarily slow down when the backups are on the floor. Minnesota needs to do a better job coping with the disruptions in Game 3, but this wasn't a low-scoring matchup during the regular season, and Game 2 was able to land on the over side. All but one (Game One of this series, when Minnesota went ice cold in the second half) of the six meetings to date this season has reached 218 points or more. Play Thunder-Wolves Over

Rudy Gobert has struggled in the first two games against the Thunder. He had two points and three rebounds in Game 1. He was a little better in Game 2, but still had just five points and nine rebounds. Over 12 playoff games, he has combined for 16 or fewer points, rebounds and assists eight times. After averaging 33 minutes per game during the regular season, he has averaged just 28 minutes in the playoffs. Given his struggles, he could see limited minutes again in Game 3.

I really don't see the point of playing +2.5 ... +3.5 maybe. Either the Wolves are winning this game or they probably get stomped again in my opinion. OKC is 0-5 ATS on the road in these playoffs. Indiana-Oklahoma City NBA Finals perhaps. Indianapolis and OKC are two places you pray where your flights aren't delayed and stuck there overnight (yep, that's happened to me in both cities, and they are nice towns but super boring). I'm sure the NBA's TV partners are thrilled (not) about that possible Finals matchup. I personally think that would be the best one in a contrast of styles. And I just can't take any more of Timothée Chalamet. Please go away.

Prior to game 2 of this series, Julius Randle has been mostly exceptional in the playoffs, however I would argue he’s played above his head and is a significant regression candidate. Randle has the unenviable task of facing the Oklahoma City Thunder who not only possess the best defense in the league, but additionally defend the perimeter as well as any team. This is notable because over half of Randle’s field goal attempts come from beyond the arc. I prefer Randles PR number due to his inability to make a big impact on the glass in this series.

It's a bit tricky to make a case for the T-wolves, after the first two games of this series were almost carbon copies of one another in OKC. In Minnesota's favor, perhaps, is that the Thunder haven't been nearly as dominant on the road in the playoffs as at home. Indeed, OKC has yet to cover a spread in five road playoff games, even having struggles at overmatched Memphis, and losing 2 of 3 in Denver. Minnesota needs someone other than Ant Edwards to step forward, and Julius Randle, quiet since early in Game One, must start to score. The T-wolves weren't outclassed during the regular season vs. OKC, splitting four, so we play the contrarian role one more time in this series. Play Thunder

Caesar’s / DraftKings. Cason Wallace has emerged as a vital piece for the Thunder this series. The Timberwolves have more backcourt ball-handlers than the Nuggets utilized, leading to Wallace’s uptick in minutes as a point of attack defender. Wallace has played 28 and 33 minutes this series, leading OKC’s bench unit. The books seem to be undervaluing Wallace’s updated role, especially since the point guard averaged 10.9 points plus assists in the regular season, in 27.6 minutes per game. Wallace has cleared this total in 20 of the last 25 games he’s played between 22 and 34 minutes, including 10 and 12 P+A performances so far this series.

We love the thunder in the first half of games. And they tend to play even a little looser on the road. They are now a +15.5 in net rating in the first half in the playoffs (MIN +3.7) and OKC is +7.4 in the first half and MIN is +1.3. OKC has won the first half an overwhelming majority in the playoffs, The Wolves could be pretty tight. OKC was a +6.6 on the road in the first half in the regular season.

This is a strong buy-low opportunity. Aaron Wiggins is projected for 6.0 points and averaged 11.1 during the regular season. Despite scoring just 7 points across four playoff games (excluding an 8-point outing in the Denver blowout), his road splits are encouraging: 11.6 PPG on the road vs. 10.7 at home and over 4.5 points in 35 of 43 road games (81.4%). Wiggins is one of five perimeter bench players tasked with defending and "heat checking" from three. With Isaiah Joe seemingly out of the rotation, Wiggins could see more minutes if either Cason Wallace or Kenrich Williams miss their first few wide open looks. If Wiggins gets even 4 shots in 12 minutes for just half of his season average, he cashes this over.

The model sets the total at 214, giving us a 60% edge on the under at 218.5. While for the sake of our spread pick I'd like OKC to get red hot from three, it's more likely they stay around their projected 35%. Minnesota's edge in three-point production comes from four extra attempts, not a higher percentage. Defensively, OKC has improved on the road this season. They allowed 34% from three both home and away, thanks to elite defenders like Lu Dort and Jalen Williams whereas last season they allowed 37% on the road vs 35% at home. While some Minnesota shooters may regress positively at home, others like McDaniels and Alexander-Walker (10-for-24 combined in Games 1 and 2) could cool off, balancing the scales.

Despite shooting under 30% from three at home in Game 1, the Thunder still comfortably covered. The model projects a close game, but OKC holds two slim, sustainable advantages: +2 in 2-point differential and +2 in turnover margin. Minnesota's projected edge from three (+4 points) is based on volume, not efficiency. OKC is due for positive regression after shooting just 28%, 24%, 26%, 20%, and 34% from deep in their playoff road games. If they even hit their season road average of 35%, they could cover comfortably again.