Zack's Past Picks
With Aaron Gordon limited for today’s game seven, it puts a bigger burden on the star talent of Denver with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to step up. Jokic has been very aggressive in this series with his shot attempts, averaging 22 a game. That likely will be raised with Gordons limitations. He is also shooting his best in the postseason currently with back to back games of 64 percent or higher. Take Jokic’s over.
The Kansas City Royals head into their series finale against the St. Louis Cardinals on a four game losing streak. Starter Michael Wacha has been brilliant on the young season, but is coming off a season high of eight hits allowed. He has also pitched six innings or more in four straight outings. Tail St. Louis to do enough damage to sweep the Royals for the first time this season at home.
Jaylen Brown snapped his shooting slump with game five’s outburst from the field. When he is knocking down his jumpers, New York does not have a main defender that can stop him. Look for Brown to attack in the same way as game five with outside jumpers that turn into slashes to the basket. In another win or go home game look for Brown to excel in the points department. Play his over.
The Baltimore Orioles were a popular wager yesterday to end the Twins win streak, but instead were swept in a shutout loss. They are now just 2-9 over their last eleven games, and will look for a fresh start in their new series against the Washington Nationals. Struggling starter Cade Povich will had his best outing against Washington on April 24th. Take the Orioles to get the best of McKenzie Gore for the second time in a three week span.
Lu Dort has been primarily a three point shooter in the Thunder’s series against Denver. Over the last two games all of his shots have been beyond the arc, and in the series he has taken forty three pointers compared to six two point shots. Tonight, look for Dort to bypass a strange home and road postseason split. Against Memphis he averaged ten points at home and three on the road, and against Denver 4.5 points on the road compared to thirteen at home. Dort finally ends his road woes tonight. Play his points over.
Oklahoma City has not played their best basketball over the last two games, but they have utilized their depth to erase deficits and win in the fourth quarter. In game six they will attempt to get their first road cover in the series, which I believe will play out similar to games four and five. On a reduced spread offering from games three and four, back OKC to close out Denver. Lay the number in game six.
The Cleveland Cavaliers had their first flat performance of the postseason in game four’s loss against the Indiana Pacers. Down three games to one, they can not allow the Pacers to dictate the tempo early on like game four. Look for the Cavaliers to show the focus they did in game three, and extend this series at least one more game. Lay the big number on Cleveland.
It’s been an ugly week for the Milwaukee Brewers who have lost four out of their last five games. Today, should be an opportunity to bounce back from being shut out in yesterday’s opener against the Cleveland Guardians. Logan Allen has struggled in the hits and walks department, and also is not pitching deep into games. Take the Brewers as the slight road underdog.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been masterful defensively against the Golden State Warriors. Golden State has not scored over 100 points in the series yet, and Jimmy Butler put his all into game three. With Anthony Edwards coming off his best game of the series, look for other teammates to find their confidence in game four. Minnesota covers and heads back home to try and close out the series in five.
The Kansas City Royals had their seven game winning streak snapped on Saturday against the Red Sox. In both weekend games they managed just two combined runs. Furthermore, they have scored two runs or less in four out of five games. Although Houston did not manage a run against Michael Wacha on April 26th, look for the Royals inefficiency at the plate to cost them their third loss in a row.
Darius Garland saw his first action in over two weeks in game three’s victory for the Cleveland Cavaliers. As expected he did not shoot the ball well at twenty seven percent, but I expect a rise from him in game two. With Donovan Mitchell’s strong play, Indiana is going to have to over compensate to a degree defensively. Garland gets past his points prop here in game four at Indiana.
Of the remaining teams in the postseason, the predictability of the Cleveland Cavaliers has been the strongest. They swept the Miami Heat, and if they were healthy perhaps they would be going for another sweep today. Road success in their three postseason wins has been by a minimum twenty points, and an average margin of victory of 38 points. Not as lopsided here in game four, but their surge offensively continues to push them past the number.
The Baltimore Orioles are once again are a steep priced favorites on the road against the LA Angels, despite being 6-15 on the road. Look for the fortune of Angels starter Tyler Anderson to subside, as the Angels have won six out of his seven starts. That’s six of the Angels sixteen wins on the year. Not sustainable, whether it’s via Anderson’s arm or the Angels bullpen. Tail the road favored Orioles.
Coach Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors is searching for lineups that are going to work without Steph Curry. This will give Anthony Edwards more flexibility to take over in game three. Game one he did not know how to attack the Warriors defensively, and game two he missed a key six minute stretch in the second quarter. After three straight playoff games of under performing points wise, look for Edwards to clear his points prop in game three.
The Golden State Warriors problems against the Timberwolves may continue in game three, but I’m expecting a better output offensively from Golden State. In game two, Jonathan Kuminga stepped up, and next in line is Brandin Podziemski. He has scored 11 points or less in seven out of his last eight games, but did he get his last two shots to go in game two. Look for his best offensive game since game four against the Rockets.