We just successfully faded MPJ but I believe the oddsmakers over adjusted his lines, especially considering this game is being played in Denver where he’s been far more productive in the playoffs. The Nuggets are in desperate need of another scoring option. I’m willing to roll the dice here and bank on a bounce back for the talented forward.

Lu Dort has been primarily a three point shooter in the Thunder’s series against Denver. Over the last two games all of his shots have been beyond the arc, and in the series he has taken forty three pointers compared to six two point shots. Tonight, look for Dort to bypass a strange home and road postseason split. Against Memphis he averaged ten points at home and three on the road, and against Denver 4.5 points on the road compared to thirteen at home. Dort finally ends his road woes tonight. Play his points over.

Oklahoma City has not played their best basketball over the last two games, but they have utilized their depth to erase deficits and win in the fourth quarter. In game six they will attempt to get their first road cover in the series, which I believe will play out similar to games four and five. On a reduced spread offering from games three and four, back OKC to close out Denver. Lay the number in game six.

OKC might have impressed more when grinding out wins in Games 4 and 5 than the 43-point blowout in Game 2. We suspect Denver is going to live to regret letting the Thunder off of the hook on Tuesday with a chance to take a 3-2 lead and get a potential close-out game back tonight at Ball Arena. OKC's depth shined again on Tuesday when Lu Dort's trio of triples kick-started late OKC surge that netted a 34-19 advantage in the 4th Q. Denver likely needs at least two from Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr, Christian Braun, and Russell Westbrook to come up big and help the Joker and Jamal Murray to have its best chance to force a Game 7. Play Thunder.

DraftKings. Would bet this at under 25.5 for a full unit as well. Jalen Williams has remained under this combined points plus assists line in four of five games this series. His usage rate has declined by a few ticks compared to his season long average, and his front court touches are down as well, despite seeing an uptick in minutes. In all but one game, he’s ceded opportunities to Shaie Gilgeous-Alexander, who is also (predictably) seeing more minutes in these crucial games. Plus, Williams does draw arguably the tougher individual matchup with Aaron Gordon as his primary defender.

With Michael Porter disappearing, Jamal Murray took it upon himself to take 27 shots in Game 5. Murray is averaging over six free-throw attempts in this series, though he's only cleared this prop total twice. But Murray usually steps up in these situations, averaging 27.8 points in 11 career playoff elimination games. "We're going to go play the game in Denver, and then we get to come back" to OKC for Game 7, Murray told reporters after the Game 5 loss. Look for Murray to back up his comments with a big scoring performance.

Alex Caruso continues to be one of the key members of the Thunder’s bench. He provides instant energy and is one of the best defenders in the league. He only played 10 minutes in the Thunder’s blowout win in Game 2, but he logged at least 23 minutes in each of the other four games against the Nuggets. In three of those games, he had at least six combined rebounds and assists. He also had at least six combined rebounds and assists in all four games in the first round against the Grizzlies. At plus money, I like taking a chance on this over.

Isaiah Hartenstein had his best scoring performance of the playoffs in Game 5, putting up 15 points against the Nuggets. He also had seven rebounds, meaning that he has recorded at least 20 combined points and rebounds in all five games against the Nuggets. He has logged at least 29 minutes in four of the five games, with the only exception being when he played 22 minutes in the Thunder’s blowout win in Game 2. This should be a close game in Denver with the Nuggets trying to stave off elimination, so I like Hartenstein to hit this over again.

The Thunder had a slower start in Game 5, but have dominated the first half in this series; the Nuggets are slow starters in general but especially at home. They seem out of gas again and OKC has a 20.3 net rating in the first half in this series. Thunder have been fast starters all season and are +10 in the first half in this series. Nuggets had a bottom 10 D rating in the first half at home all season and early turnovers have killed them too.

DraftKings. Running back the over on Isaiah Hartenstein’s points plus rebounds prop yet again. He’s now cleared this line in all seven games against the Nuggets this season. With him being the best matchup defensively for Nikola Jokic, Hartenstein’s rotation is now at about 32 minutes - when he’s played at least 26 minutes this season, he’s cleared this line in 36 of 45 games (80%).

The line implies just under a 60% chance while our 1.2 projection implies at least an 80% chance. When you combine his ice cold shooting with Denver's short rotation, you have a guy who has to play 25+ minutes. However, Porter may look to be more of a decoy and instead of shooting a three like normal, he'll pass it off to someone who isn't struggling so much or playing with a bum shoulder. This is a buy low spot with him having 0 assists in 5 of his last 7 games.

We like the Thunder to cover because of turnovers, which is resulting in Denver to come under their team total. The Thunder shot poorly from both two and three point range in Games 3 and 4 (~45% from 2pt range, 25% from 3pt range) and we are projecting them to shoot 2 to 3 percentage points under their season averages of 56% on twos and 37% on threes. As a result the model has a line of just 213.5 and has the game coming under in 59% of simulations. The altitude in Denver seemed to negatively impacted Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who shot just 15 for 41 (36%) from the field in Games 3 and 4.

The model has a lean on the Thunder setting the line at OKC -6 with them covering in 56% of the simulations. The key statistical advantage for OKC is turnover margin with a DEN 14.0, OKC 10.5 projection. The last three games have been tight and OKC has not covered in any of them because the turnover margin has been close. Denver has committed just 3 more turnovers over the last 3 games. Denver more than doubled up OKC in turnovers in games 1 and 2 committing 38 vs just 18 for the Thunder. OKC was +5 per game this season in turnover differential while Denver was -2 and after back-to-back disheartening losses we are expecting the Thunder to get back to creating defensive havoc.