Have Houston in the final and absolutely believe it can win Saturday a short jaunt from campus. Reminds me so much of those two epic UNLV-Duke matchups in back-to-back Dances in the early 1990s. Houston is the rugged big-city team led by a controversial coach with a checkered past (Kelvin Sampson/Jerry Tarkanian), and Cooper Flagg is of course Christian Laettner on the "elitist" Blue Devils. I simply think the Cougars are grown men -- upperclassmen everywhere -- and Duke relies so much on the 18-year-old Flagg and other freshman teenagers in Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maulauch. It might be worth waiting as the public always loves Duke and maybe we see +6, but I'm totally fine with 5.5 as I don't think it will matter.

As I largely expected, Auburn star Johni Broome dominated smallish Michigan State, but the Gators have the size to deal with Broome. And won at Auburn, 90-81, the day before the Super Bowl when the Tigers were No. 1 in the country (No. 1 overall seed in the Dance) and on a 14-game home winning streak. Broome was very good with 18 points and 11 rebounds but also only 8-for-19 from the field. And back then, the Gators didn't have 7-footer Micah Handlogten but they do now even if it's for only 15 foul-filled minutes. Don't generally like betting against a team with the best player on the court and Auburn will have that, but UF may own the next best four.

I'm going to write about the new College Basketball Crown in Monday's newsletter, but the gist of it is that betting games in this event will be all about which teams kept their guys from the portal, etc. Utah has been hammered by defections with nine total -- doesn't officially mean all of them won't play, and this is the stupidest thing ever -- likely because the school also fired its head coach. I don't currently see any Butler guys in the portal but that doesn't mean anything honestly as guys can enter whenever they want, and some may just opt not to play in this and risk injury. But there is $$ motivation as I will explain Monday.

I have Houston playing for the natty (losing to Florida), so not about to bail on the Cougars now. What a fabulous play design by Kelvin Sampson on that last-second inbounds play to beat Purdue in the Sweet 16. Simple yet brilliant. This Elite Eight matchup from Indy is going to be an utter rock fight and first one to 50 points might win. UT is an excellent defensive team (KenPom No. 3 nationally), but UH (No. 1) has no peer among major college teams in that regard. The last time the Cougars lost a game, the Chiefs were still reigning Super Bowl champions and my waistline an inch smaller (missus has been taking cooking classes).

Duke has been outrageous offensively of late but man 92 points in an Elite Eight game. What if Cooper Flagg gets two early fouls? Would imagine the Blue Devils try and slow the pace a little because the Tide 100 percent want to get into a track meet, but Duke is as good offensively. We likely need just one five-minute bad shooting stretch from the Dukies to cash barring overtime. I actually haven't been looking at models for a handful of weeks and have been doing vastly better since rather ironically (glad my gut is good for something), but I'm not a huge totals guy so I did check on this and ours has Duke at 85. KenPom has 86 and Massey 83.

If you read today's premium newsletter (sign up), then you know I am actually rooting for Michigan basketball for the first time in my life -- simply to hopefully see U-M vs. Michigan State in the Elite Eight and facing off in the Dance for the first time. Football, I never root for the Ann Arbor fools except vs. even more-hated Ohio State (I root for a postponement/hail/Old Testament locusts). So I win either way here. But I do think Michigan's two 7-footers are going to cause problems for Auburn's 38-year-old Johni Broome, who is a fabulous college player but not much of a pro prospect because he really can't shoot outside the paint and too much of a tweener to fit in the NBA.

If I were a Vols fan, and I most assuredly am not, I'd be thrilled that they lost both regular-season meetings to Kentucky in regards to winning this Sweet 16 matchup. UK was 12-for-24 on 3-pointers in both, and I think that was a fluke (x2) as no other team shot better than 45% from three against UT and only three hit more than 40%. This is from Indianapolis, a city that has caused Kentucky a lot of NCAA Tournament pain over the years. UT and UK have played three times in a season three times in Coach Rick Barnes' decade at UT. Neither team has won all three in any of those.

I have my Spartans in the Elite Eight but the road ending there, and I still think that's what happens unless Michigan upsets No. 1 Auburn in the other half of the South Region on Friday. If there's a Michigan-Michigan State regional final Sunday, I'm gonna have to try to find a way to get to Atlanta last minute. Ole Miss has been so impressive in this Dance largely by shooting nearly 50% from deep. MSU was No. 1 in the nation during the season in 3-point percentage defense. Not betting against Tom Izzo in this round; he's 9-0 all-time vs. SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament, so maybe I do prefer Auburn on Sunday.

Upon first glance, I probably liked UAB +5.5 if I played anything on this NIT quarterfinal, but now that UC Irvine has fallen to a respectable moneyline number I'm gonna take the 30-win Anteaters on their home court. It's one of the most veteran rosters in the country with five guys having played at least 100 NCAA games and three with at least 1,000 points led by All-Big West first-team center Bent Leuchten. UC Irvine ranks No. 2 nationally in free-throw percentage and this is a big deal as no Big West team had even reached the NIT quarters since 1985. Third straight NIT true road game for UAB, which has been in California for several days after upsetting Santa Clara on Sunday.

I planned to stay far away from this CBI after going 0-2 yesterday but stuck to half units because you just never know who will play or not in these minor events. But I am reading that one of FGCU's best players, All-ASUN first-team forward Keeshawn Kellman (13.8 PPG, team-best 7.5 RPG), twisted his ankle in yesterday's win over Army. I'm assuming that's why he was limited to 19 minutes when all the other starters played at least 26. I have no clue if he's playing or not but if not then I certainly like Cleveland State -- which is probably better anyways. CSU had zero trouble shaking off the rust yesterday with a rout of Queens, and all the Vikings' main guys played.

I hate to initiate some kind of Mission Impossible "Curse Protocol" by following a handful of other experts on Queens, but after watching the other two teams from this CBI today who played Sunday against two teams who haven't played for weeks ... there sure seems to be a massive disadvantage for those clubs who had all that time off. That's all this is because Cleveland State was the better team in the regular season. But so was overly rested Jacksonville in the first CBI game today vs. Incarnate Word, and JU got spanked.

CBI game from Daytona Beach so not too far from Jacksonville, but I don't exactly expect more than 50 people in the gym for a noon CBI game on a Monday. The Cardinals, who were under .500 in Southland play, beat Manhattan yesterday to advance. The Dolphins, 12-6 in ASUN play, last took the court on March 6. KenPom ranks JU about 60 spots better. Probably be some rust but there's little doubt in my mind it was the better team during the season led by first team All-ASUN pick Robert McCray V. But after like three-plus weeks, guys might have already transferred out for all I know. But we can't turn down a Monday afternoon game, can we?

True home game in the NIT's second round for North Texas, which has just one loss in Denton all season. UNT is in the NIT for a fourth straight year and 8-2 in it. The Mean Green aren't very good offensively but again one of the nation's top defensive clubs. Sunday marks the first time the two former conference rivals have played one another since 2013 and the first time they’ve met in a non-conference (regular season or postseason) matchup since 1978. The Mean Green play in the much tougher conference now in the AAC compared to A-State's Sun Belt. UNT guard Atin Wright and forward Brenen Lorient were both named first-team All-AAC.

UCLA looked fantastic in Round 1 but this should be mostly a pro-Tennessee crowd on Saturday night in Lexington -- will be weird seeing all that orange there. Offense can come and go for any club,but with the Vols you pretty much can always be assured a terrific defensive effort. The Bruins are certainly no slouches on that end but UT is ranked No. 5 overall nationally by KenPom and UCLA No. 22. The Vols should have the best offensive player on the floor in Chaz Lanier, who is close to setting a single-season school record in 3-pointers made. Our model and many I've checked have UT by about five.

Yep, Moneyline Matt is at it again. But I've finally stopped crying -- and ordered a baby goat online -- after the Severance season 2 finale. So good. I'm obviously different than most on here. I go look for who wins first, cycle through and see if value. I had a hard-a** dad who always taught me to win. So it may bleed over to gambling (think Emilio in Breakfast Club). Then I go back and see if an underdog has value. I destroyed Gonzaga ML vs. Georgia in Round 1, but it was too high to post on here. This is bordering on too high, but maybe the worst Gonzaga team in years and perhaps the best Houston one.