DraftKings at -115. This is a line Josh Hart has cleared in three of the five games this series, and in 39/53 total games with the Knicks starting five fully in tact this season. But specifically for this game, two things stand out to me. Firstly, the Pistons are committing to leaving Hart open, by defending him with Jalen Duren in drop coverage. Hart is no stranger to this (see last season’s playoffs), and I expect the ball to find him plenty in the half court. Secondly, the Knicks have commented on playing faster in Game 6, which is Hart’s forte. The Pistons have been leaky in transition all series, and I expect Hart to lead the charge on the fastbreak.

In Game 4, the Pistons were sidetracked by the refs, who made an acknowledged error in the last second. But Detroit bounced back to win at MSG on Tuesday as road teams are now 4-1 in this series. That's one reason we think it unlikely for New York to win three straight at Little Caesars after the first two in Motown were decided by 3 points total. Tom Thibodeau has risked running his starters into the ground with the minutes they've played during the season, and Detroit has proven equal to the Knicks throughout this series as Cade Cunningham (another clutch 24 points in the Game 5 win) hasn't looked at all intimidated by his first NBA postseason assignment. Play Pistons on Money Line

The model barely leans under but given the game is nearly a pick’em, a higher than normal number of simulations do involve overtime, so the 53 pts per quarter we are projecting is more like 51.5 in reality. The 54.5 line projects to 218 over 4 quarters which is well over the 213 consensus game total because conventional thinking is down the stretch of games teams get tight and run the clock down resulting in fewer possessions. But in this case, I like the Knicks to win the first quarter, not only because of fresh legs helping their accuracy on 3pt shots, but also a fresh defense to start the game with active hands on defense.

There is no strong model value on any of the main side lines. But this series has gone pretty much as the model projected in that it was far more competitive than the pre-series odds expected and Detroit would be better on the road than they are at home. NY came out quickly and easily won the first quarter of both Game 3 and 4 in Detroit. The model has NY as less than a 1 point underdog for the game and anecdotally they seem to be better to start games before Jalen Brunson inevitably hurts an ankle and the starters start to wear down after barely resting in the first 3.5 quarters.

Dennis Schroder is the most consistent ball handler on Detroit. And that is exactly what this Pistons team needs to stay alive; Cade Cunningham had 6 turnovers alone last game. Schroder is shooting 52% from the field and 53% from 3pt range and he benefits from coming off fresh from the bench probably facing a defender who is already beginning to tire. He comes in 18-6 over 9.5, averaging 12.3 points and 28 minutes.

Jalen Duren is known for his rebounding. After averaging 13.8 rebounds per game last season, he averaged 11.8 rebounds this season. However, he is also a good passer for a center. During the regular season, he averaged 2.7 assists despite playing only 26 minutes per game. In this series against the Knicks, Duren has recorded at least three assists in four of the five games and has averaged 33 minutes. The last two games, he has totaled 10 assists. With him likely in line to play at least 30 minutes again, I’ll take this over.